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Saturday, September 19, 2009

38 Steps to Becoming a Successful Trader

This is a wonderful compilation of practical steps or path a successful trader takes. This is a long list but I promises you wont be bored if you are carving to becoming a successful trader. Here you go:

Disclaimer: Apparently, this was first published in Commodity Futures Trading Club News, Issue #27, I am merely copying it as-is.

1) We accumulate trading information - buying books, going to seminars and researching.
2) We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
3) We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
4) We accumulate more information.
5) We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6) We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.
7) We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
8) We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.
9) We go back into the market and continue to donate.
10) We switch commodities again.
11) We search for more trading information.
12) We go back into the market and continue to donate.
13) We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.
14) We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.


Many Traders Will Give up at this Point as they Realize Work is Involved


15) We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.
16) We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
17) We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18) We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19) We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
20) We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21) We go back into the market and continue to donate.
22) We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the trade methodology.
23) We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24) As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are erratic.
25) We know we are close.
26) We go back and research our rules.
27) We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28) Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
29) We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them.
30) We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31) We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32) We master our methodology and trading rules.
33) We begin to consistently make money. We begin to consistently make money.
34) We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
35) We continue to learn our lessons.
36) We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
37) We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
38) We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of.

Most traders will identify with this list and should be able to place themselves within these steps. Keep in mind that very few people progress through these steps in an orderly fashion. Developing your trading skills is an iterative process. For example, you may reach Step 13, find that although you were making money, your basic premise for trading was flawed (you might have been benefiting from the bull market, rather than your own trading prowess and then have been rudely awakened when the market entered a bear phase) and you may drop back to Step 4 and start 'climbing' the steps again. Having the proper mindset, attitude and psychological makeup becomes increasingly important as you progress through the steps. The focus of the earlier steps is on external issues, i.e. developing proficiency in the mechanics of trading while the focus of the latter steps (particularly from Step 30, on) is on internal issues, i.e. improving ourselves mentally and psychologically, maturing as trader.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Would More Female Traders Have Prevented the Crisis?

Iceland: With a national debt 10 times greater than its economy, Iceland's collapse was the fastest in history. But one female-run bank survived. Its founders argue that gender had much to do with it. And now research may back them up. Watch the Video for the whole story.


May be its wise to take your wife's, mother's or sister's advice before you go for your next big investment You could also try an experiment to teach them a little trading and see if it makes a difference. Who knows, this could save in the next financial crisis.

10 Golden Trading Rules

A Very nice video that teaches the crux of successful trading.


10 Golden Trading Rules as text:
  1. A game plan
  2. Follow the game plan
  3. Always trade with stop loss
  4. Diversification
  5. Filter your trade (capture the big moves)
  6. Trade with the Trend so odds in your favor
  7. Not listen to News. Real News = what the market is doing
  8. Don't listen to your broker. conflict of interest
  9. Money Management
  10. Must have discipline in your trading

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Crowd Mentality Theory

"Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd." - Benjamin Graham

Crowd mentality is the behavior and actions of people in groups. The base tenet of this theory is that the actions of a person will differ when he is among a bunch of people (crowd) compared to when he is acting in isolation. A crowd can be often driven toward irrational actions that most isolated individuals would not attempt.

How is this applied to Financial Markets? Well, open the at below image and observe it for some time.


Extreme optimism signals when the bull market is about to end. Greed makes people think that the markets go only north and there are no limits. Smart investors find this opportunity to sell off their stock and sit on cash. The opposite of this could be seen at market bottoms with prevailing extreme desperation.

What does this have to do with Crowd behaviours? Simple, the crowd happens to be the best medium to spread greed and fear, the emotions playing at the market tops and bottoms respectively!

So, how do we identify crowd mentality and act in our favor? Its not an unheard saying - Act exactly opposite of crowd: Buy when every one is screaming to sell and sell when every one is busy buying. But, if it is all that simple, we all would be millionaires, wouldn’t we? :)

After all this mumbo-jumbo on the theory, the question every one must have: Is the crowd behavior always irrational? Not necessarily! This is the main flaw in the theory. Some key points to keep in mind, however:
  • Crowd mentality theory is to be primarily applied in medium to long term investing, not in day-to-day trading.
  • This has to be applied in conjunction with other disciplines, be it technical or fundamental analysis.
  • When every one is screaming to sell or buy, ask yourself, is this rational? For example, many CNBC analysts said the market was overvalued when sensex was at 16000 in 2007 and the same analysts were finding the market very attractive and undervalued when sensex was at 16000 2008. Is this rational? What has fundamentally changed in 1 year? Probably nothing.
Happy trading!
 

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