Nifty Technical Analysis For 2nd Sept 09

Nifty Chart - Daily:

Nifty formed an outside bar with high volumes, after 3 months at last Nifty could see high volumes again. Volumes where gradually increasing from past 10 days. On the price chart Nifty may form an Ascending Triangle.

Nifty Chart - Hourly:

Nifty has broken the important support level of 4630 yesterday with confirming volumes. Also it formed a double top and gave a breakdown, target for this pattern can be 4550 level.

On the higher side Nifty may take good resistance from the 4630 levels. 4660 may act as next resistance level.

On the lower side 4593 may act as support. Below which Nifty may slide up to 4550 level which is the target for the double top and also the Gap formed on 24th Aug would be closed. 4500 may act as next important support for Nifty, if it is broken then bears may gain strength.

Nifty (Futures) Technical Analysis For June 12th

Today's Recap (June 11th):
Nifty opened flat and started moving zigzag breaking highs and lows of the day in a narrow range. It formed a good ABCD pattern just above the GAP support. The numerical support and a candlestick hammer saying loud that the CD leg is ending here. Later on Nifty moved up as expected reaching the targets of ABCD pattern giving a profit of 45 points intraday.

What is there for tomorrow (June 12th):

On the higher side nifty got 3 resistances at present.

• Today’s double top at 4676
• Double top on 10th June 4690 levels
• Resistance line of expanding triangle.

We got a good pull back from the resistance levels of the expanding triangle, this partial pullback adds trust to the up move helping price for the break out of the triangle. As I wrote yesterday, if Nifty manages to break the Expanding Triangle's resistance line convincingly and closes above that, it will be good sign for Bulls. Based on the volumes of the breakout, next target for the price may be the height of the last leg of the expanding triangle.

On the lower side, price didn’t close the gap formed on June 10th at 4580/90. This will acts as support. If 4580 levels are taken down, we may see further down move until gap being closed. Below that price may slip down near to 4500 levels

Below is the 15 min chart of nifty futures:

Below is the 5 min intraday chart:

On Daily charts Nifty made Candlestick harami or inside bar, Harami is not as significant as engulfing or doji but at times indicates the trend change, especially on market tops. Below is the daily chart of Nifty futures:

Nifty (Futures) Technical Analysis For June 11th

Today's Recap (June 10th):

Nifty opened with gap, moved up immediately with out closing the gap, and then bounced back from the resistance line of the expanding triangle. It took good support at 4640 levels and made double top at 4700 levels.

Over all today's move looks like a rounding top which is not good for bulls. At the same time, the evening star formed between 6th to 8th on daily charts is negated today, which may give positive clues for the upmove! Not a clear decessive day

What is there for tomorrow (June 11th):

On the lower side, today's support of 4640 is going to be very crucial for tomorrow. If 4640 levels are taken down tomorrow, we may see Nifty slipping down to 4580 levels which is today's (June 10th) gap support. If 4580 levels are taken out, we may see further down move until gap being closed.

On the higher side if nifty breaks the double top levels of 4700 convincingly, it can move up to reach the expanding triangle's resistance line. If Nifty manages to break the Expanding Triangle's resistance line conviencingly and closes above that tomorrow, this will be good sign for Bulls. Based on the volumes of the breakout, next target for the price may be the height of the last leg of the expanding triangle.

Below is the 15 min chart of nifty futures:

Below is the 5 min chart of nifty showing double top:

Update on Axis Bank Gartley

Update on Axis Bank Bearish Gartley:

Today axis bank broke the highs of the yesterday but the Gartley Pattern is still valid as it didn't beat the filter. Some of the points to note are:

1. Formed double top with yesterdays and today's peaks, with volumes support (yesterday's peak's volumes are more than today's peak)
   
2. This Double Top will be confirmed when the Rs.771 is decisively taken down (with good volumes and spreads).
   
3. A point to note that yesterday's low and today's low are not a double bottom as the volumes at yesterday's low are significantly higher than today's low.
   
4. Also, this should not be confused with a Channel, because the volumes are not draining, as they should be in a channel.
   
5. We can clearly see that the positive market sentiments are pulling it up but the bearishness in the pattern is slowing the up moves.
   

Below is the latest chart:

Intraday Analysis of Nifty (Futures) on 21st May 09

Nifty opened gap down today and price started moving sideways. A channel is formed, with draining volumes and gave a break out with good volumes and reached the target. After retracing to some point price started moving up again, but with low volumes compared to previous up move. And the shooting star is indicating some bearish signals, so this is surely a double top hence we go short below the support trend line. Below is the chart showing Channel and Double Top in Nifty futures on 5 min time frame:



In an Ideal head and shoulders, while price is moving upwards in head volumes should not be very high as this indicates bullishness. Here we got good volumes while moving up, but later we saw a double top which is bearish sign and while moving down from the second top volumes increased nicely as compared to the up move. In the right shoulder volumes declined while moving up and increased while moving down, which is good. Though we got higher volumes in while moving up in formation of head, double top is negating the bullishness and nice volumes in right shoulder is telling us this is a good head and shoulder pattern. And the big volumes and wide spread at the break down confirm the head and shoulders pattern. Below is the chart showing Head and shoulders in Nifty futures on 5 min time frame:

Nifty (Futures) Intraday Analysis for 5th May 2009

Marked opened flat, and continued yesterdays expanding triangle, breaking highs and lows of the day. Generally expanding triangles form on market tops and they form when there is uncertainty in the market. We can expect some down move in nifty tomorrow. 

Below is the expanding triangle on nifty chart:



My Trades:

• Long triggered at 3666 when pivot high is broken.
  
• Closed long at 3659 when pivot low is broken down.
  
• Long triggered at 3666 when nifty broke above double top or channel.
  
• Closed long at 3672 when pivot low is broken down.
  
• Total 1 point(-7 + 6 = -1) Loss on today's two trades.
  

Below is the Nifty Futures intraday chart on 5 min time frame:

Nifty short term Technical Analysis

Nifty made double top on 27 th of this month with low volumes, today it broke the support trend line as well as 200DMA (3393). If Nifty further breaks down 3290 convincingly, which is the next critical support level, then we could see Nifty heading for a target of 3100 to 3115.

Nifty (Futures) Intraday Analysis for 21st April 2009

Nifty opened gap down and moved up to close tha gap and then moved down. After retesting the wedge support line, gave a BO of the wedge at 12:15 PM. But after that, price started moving up with low volumes and then came down to retest the upper line of the wedge.

Below is the nifty futures chart showing Falling wedge:

• While moving up, a Symmetric Triangle was formed, but the target was not reached.
  
• We can also see Double top at the top of the price chart. Target is achieved for it.
  

Below is the Nifty Futures intraday chart on 5 min time frame:

My Trades:

• Went long at 3367 after pivot break
  
• Reversed to short at 3400 when pivot low is broken. After making double top.
• Covered at 3356 at 3:20 PM
• Total 33(In long trade)+ 44(In Short trade) = 77 Points profit