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Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Technical Analysis on Chambal Fert - 31 Aug 09

Chambal Fert Intraday Chart - 5 mins:
Chambal Fertilizer formed a Symmetric Triangle with lower volumes in 5 min time frame. Break out or break down with volume confirmation may give the target of the height of the Triangle, which is Rs. 2.50

Chambal Fert Chart - Hourly:
In hourly charts the triangle has formed like a pennant to the pole. As this Triangle formed after the sustained up move with spiking volumes, it acts like a pole and pennant (continuation pattern). If breaks out happens to the triangle in 5 min time frame then the extended target would be the height of the pole which is Rs.5

Monday, August 10, 2009

Update on Descending Triangle in Chambal Fert - 10th Aug 09

Chambal fert Chart - Hourly:

Chambal fert gave a good break down from the Descending Triangle on 5th Aug. As it is formed from good harmonic retarcements it took support from the Fibonacci convergence and formed an AB = CD pattern. It reached the targets of the pattern on the same day as I have explained in the previous post. Though it moved up to reach the targets of the ABCD pattern. It didn't trigger the stop loss of the Triangle and reached the triangle targets today.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Update on Descending Triangle in Chambal Fert - 5th Aug 09


Triangles are consolidation patterns, they coil inside the support and resistance zone, which develops potential thrust. When they give breakout or breakdown then they tend to push the prices to there targets due to the thrust developed inside the pattern.

In the above Decending Triangle, the pattern formed with perfect harmonic waves as shown in the image. When a pattern forms with harmonics, they tend to take support and resistance at the Fibonacci values. which will be against our present trade. So when do we trigger the trade in such case?

1. Check for the convergence of the harmonic patterns.
2. If the Fibonacci levels are near to support/resistance line price +/- Filter then move the trigger price just above or below the Fibonacci levels
3. If the fibonacci level is far from the support/resistance line +/- filter then watch the price action near the fibonacci levels carefully. Move the stop loss near to the fibonacci levels. If it is broken with big wide range bars or gap appers in that levels then our stop loss wont trigger and trade is intact.
4. If the price is bouncing from those levels, then the stop loss gets triggered and in this case also we exit in profits.

a) if the Fibonacci support level is taken out decisively then our trade gets triggered and we get profits.

b) If the price is reversed then our stop loss order gets triggered and we get take the profits at the targets of the harmonic pattern.


In the Chambal fert case, Fibonacci convergence has occurred at 54.80 levels, which is very near to our triangle breakdown price. So we move the trade trigger price below the Fibo level, that is at 54.50 level, and put the stoploss order at 55.90 levels. In this case price reversed from the pattern and stop loss order gets triggered and took the profits at 1st and 2nd targets of the ABCD pattern that is at 57.10 and 57.70 levels.

Descending Triangle in Chambal Fert - 5th Aug 09

Chambal Fert Chart - Hourly:

Chambal fert is formed a Descending Triangle, Volumes are also declining. Break down may give Rs3.5, it may move up to 51.5 levels

Update at 10:55AM :
Short Triggers at 54.50 Levels with the stop loss of 55.90 levels

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Update: Patterns Posted On 19th June 2009

Update on ABCD Patterns Posted On 19th June 2009. Chambal Fert, Punj Lloyd, and Tata Steel made to the targets 3 days back and Aban missed by a small margin :)

Thanks to Deepak for prompting about these, below are the updated charts.







Friday, June 19, 2009

Bullish ABCDs: Some Scrips to Watch out Today (19th June)

Below are the some AB=CD Patterns, watch out for the reversal signals to enter




 

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