Few Scrips of interest - 07 sep 09

List of the scrips which took support from the Fibonacci levels on last Friday. Posting this for study purpose.

• RelCap took support from 61.8% it may move up to 944.
• Relinfra took support from 61.8% it may move up to 1215.
• DLF took support from 50%, it has a good chances of moving up to 455/488/518 levels.
• GMR Infra took support from 61.8% and it may move up to 152 levels.
• HDIL took support from 61.8% and it may move up to 349 levels.
• HCC took support from 78.6% and it may move up to 117 levels.

Theory is after formation of "ABC" one can trade towards the target "D" in ABCD pattern. But here the levels are involved with only one Fibonacci level, the probability of reaching the targets is less.

Most of them showed bullishness from the Fibonacci levels, and volumes after the reversal are also good.

Symmetric Triangle in RelCap - 3rd Sep 09

RelCap chart - Daily Marked with Symmetric Triangle:

Relcap formed a Symmetric Triange in daily charts, break out or breakdown with volume confirmation may give Rs.270. Volumes have increased before the breakout. If breaks out happens 1000 is the initial target for this.

RelCap chart - Daily Marked with Retracement Ratios:

Relcap formed this symmetric triangle with good harmonic retracements, I have marked them in the above chart.

Update on ShortTerm Long Opportunity in Relcap - 12th Aug

Relcap Intraday Chart - 5 mins:

Relcap Opened gap up above the first target of AB=CD pattern, One can go long above the consolidation at 846 + filter and keeping the Gap as stop loss at 837 - Filter.
If It breaks below 837- filter then I will exit my long holdings.

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Update at 5:45 PM:
Relcap Chart - 5 Min:

Relcap gave a break down and it triggered stop loss at 834. It was a spiky reversal so I have considered it as error and reentered at Rs.842

ShortTerm Long Opportunity in Relcap - 12th Aug

Relcap Chart - Daily:

Today, Relcap took support at the 61.8% of the last up move from 13th July low of Rs.700 to 6th Aug high of Rs.938 and formed a hammer in daily charts. If Relcap gives any entry opportunity tomorrow, one can enter long in this scrip. Expecting it to move at least up to 880 levels. I will update again if entry triggers tomorrow.

Relcap Intraday Chart - 15 mins:

On Intraday 15 min chart, RelCap formed AB=CD pattern with good symmetry and Fibonacci convergence as shown in above chart. I have taken some long positions at 805 today based on the AB=CD pattern and will add some more on another entry opportunity.

Update on Dragonfly Doji in Relcap - 6th Aug 09

Previous post on this trade
Relcap Intraday Chart - 5 mins:

Relcap is moving in sideways from past 3 days, after touching the support line. It broke the pivot highs on intraday basics but later it broke the support line as shown in the charts. Which is not good indication I exited my last 25% of my holdings at 890 levels.

Relcap Chart - Daily:

From 20th July onwards it is consolidating in sideways in daily charts, though it retested the support and the pivot highs, it is moving with reduced momentum. Will go short if the support zone is broken decisively with confirming volumes for intraday or else go for another stock.

Entry at 775 booked 50% at Rs.865
next 25% at 870
Last 25% at 892

on the average sold at 873 which is coming around 12.5% profits

Update on Dragonfly Doji in Relcap - 23rd Jul 09

Relcap Chart - Daily:

Reliance Capital formed candlestick dojis last 2 days, just below resistance trend line. It is unable to move above the resistance line and fall below the support line. This uncertainty may be the reason for forming candlestick Dojis last two days in daily charts.

Relcap Chart - 5 min:

Relcap formed a Diamond pattern in 5 min charts (not a perfect one though), volumes are supporting the pattern. I will exit my 25% if it gives breakdown with volumes, now moving my Stop loss to 878 - filter. After exiting this, will take decision about the remaining 25% depending on the situations.

Update on Dragonfly Doji in Relcap - 21st Jul 09

Daily chart of RelCap:

Yesturday it formed a hanging man candlestick which is bearish, also it formed near the resistance line. One of the confirmations of this candlestick pattern is taken by next day's Gap down open. But today it didn't open Gap down. Still a bearish candle is a bearish candle so I am moving my stop loss to 857 - filter for my next 25% holding.

Update on Dragonfly Doji in Relcap - 17th Jul 09

Above is the daily chart of Reliance Capital. It rocked again yesterday being 7% up, outperforming Nifty again. This was about 13% upmove from the entry signal . It was top fifth gainers in Nifty-50 yesterday. There is still a good possibility of further up move going by the price pattern, but moderate volume pattern is little discouraging. Yesterday, I closed 50% of my holdings, and moved stoploss to 790 levels.

Dragonfly Doji in Relcap - 14th Jul 09

A candlestick Dragonfly Doji is formed in daily chart of Reliance Capital marked in the above chart. They tend to form at the important change in the trend. It is a reversal pattern, and the probability of success is high when it form after significant down trend. It formed just above the Gap support, which is also good indication.

Dragonfly Doji:- When the High, Open and close of the bar happens at the same level. It is a good trend reversal indication, especially after a good down move. The success rate is high when they form at the bottoms.

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Update at 7:10 PM :

Above is the Daily chart of Reliance Capital. Reliance Capital is up about 9.2% in today's trading section. If one would have gone long above 5 min bar with filter must have got 3.5 % intraday profit

Update: Bearish Wolfe Waves in Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital

Short below 2-4 line - filter for the target of acqa line. Below is the relcap chart follow the same for relinfra, Watch out for risk reward ratio to take the trade.

Update @12:40:

Both the patterns got stopped out badly.

Points to consider for this: (1) pattern formed at yesterday's EOD and I mentioned that successratio is low for such patterns (2) Stop-Risk was unusually high for trading these Wolfe Wave.

Bearish Wolfe Waves in Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital

Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital formed Bearish Wolfe waves towards the end of day today. But the success ratio of the intraday wolfe waves that form towards end of the day is low when compared with the rest! These patterns consists of good symmetry and volumes at 5, lets see whether they work for tomorrow or not. Will post when trade triggers. Below are the charts of relinfra and relcap in 5 min time frame:

Reliance Infrastructure

Reliance Capital

Update: Channels in RelCap, Tata Steel & ICICI

Update on Channels in RelCap, Tata Steel & ICICI posted on 28 may

Tata Steel: Reached the target today at around 12:00 noon, booked handsome profits :) Below is the updated chart:

Reliance Capital: It attempted twice to break yesterday's high with low volumes, but couldn't succeed, which is clear week signal for longs. So I stopped out at pivot low break, with marginal profits. Below is the updated chart of Relcap:

ICICI Bank: It moved up nicely, though volumes were on lower side. while moving up it was consolidated in sideways and gave break out with good volumes twice. During the down moves, there wernt any big volumes. I exited this as I don't want to hold my position over the weekend. Below is the updated chart of ICICI Bank:

Update: Channels in RelCap, Tata Steel & ICICI

Update on Channels in RelCap, Tata Steel & ICICI posted yesterday:

Tata Steel: Gave a breakout with wide spread and big volumes, triggering longs. Retested the channel resistance twice successfully, which is good. Hold longs with the stop loss below Rs.366 - Filter.

Reliance Capital: Also gave a breakout with wide spread and big volumes, triggering longs. But, after that it formed a Lower-High pivot and broke down back into the channel, threatening the up move! Hold longs with strict stop loss (Choose your pick for stop loss depending up on the risk appetite as shown in the below chart)

ICICI Bank: Also gave a breakout with wide spread and good volumes, triggering longs, but later on after the first successful retest it started moving sideways forming candlestick dojis with high volumes indicating the selling pressure. Hold with stop loss (first stop loss is below pivot low and second stop loss is just below the gap, as gap gives good support. Choose the stop loss depending up on the risk appetite) below is the 5 min chart:

Channels Waiting for Break Out / Break Down

After the spectacular move on 18th March, most of the stocks entered a trading range. Here are some of those Channels that are likely to be broken up or down

Tata Steel

Reliance Capital

ICICI Bank

Update: Flag and Pole or channel in RelCap

I posted Flag and Pole or channel in RelCap on 5th May, which achieved target yesterday (20th May). Political strength in the country should be attributed for the speedy target achievement

Flag and Pole or channel in RelCap

Relcap has been moving in a channel, since last 11 days and the draining volumes support the pattern. Today it broke out of the channel with good volumes confirming the BO. The target for the channel is 643.

This channel has formed after a good run of prices with increasing volumes, which can also be seen as a flag and pole. Target for Flag and pole would be 693.