Nifty Technical Analysis For 13th July 2009

Some what lengthy post, see conclusion at the bottom if you are impatient :)

Above is the Hourly chart of Nifty Futures. It gave a breakdown from the narrow trading range with good volumes on Friday, after touching the upper band of the trading range. Now the support of the trading range (4055 level) may act as good resistance. Nifty entered into the big gap which formed on 18th May.

Above is the Hourly chart of Nifty Futures, Where the Possible ABCD pattern is marked. On Friday Nifty has closed near the 161.8% of CD retracement, which may act as good support. But as of now we can’t mark it as an ABCD pattern because the Gap and the Wide range bars towards D from C is indicating the Extension of CD leg. Also there is no valid indication that the D leg is ending here. But If we have a Gap up open and Nifty Starts moving up side with out closing the gap may give some support at this levels. One can take long trades for very short term buy keeping the Gap as the Stop loss. If Low of Friday (3963) is taken down, then 3700 may act as next major support, as it is the major Gap open level of 18th May.

Above is the Daily chart of Nifty Futures, marked with Fibo extension.

Above are the Chart of Fibo retracement levels from two different significant pivot levels

Above is the Nifty chart clubbed with all the above 3 retracement and extension shown individually. From all the above 3 charts on Fibo are converging at 3600 levels which my act like a support in future.

Conclusion:

1. An unconfirmed bullish ABCD pattern from hourly charts. Monday's opening move may confirm this pattern.
2. If Monday opens gap-up and moves up, longs can be taken for intraday with gap opening as stop loss
3. Next Major Support is 3700, if 3963 is taken out convinsingly.
4. Next good support below 3700 levels seems to be around 3600 levels where the fibo ratios converge.